Hi All,
Rather than have this post lost among the other threads, I figured it would be useful to share the entirety of data that we have to date. Upon acquisition of the project in late 2023, RVR was sitting on a bunch of drill results that were not incorporated in the MRE, which is still the resource we quote widely now.
RVR updated the resource on 21 July 2021: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-rvr-grows-hillgrove-resource-to-1mozgold-90kt-antimony.6188573/
Prior to acquisition by LRV, the following drilling announcements were released to the market.
20th December 2021: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-rvr-hits-high-grade-and-broad-gold-intervals-at-hillgrove.6496925/
3rd February 2022: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-rvr-hits-more-high-grade-gold-and-antimony-at-hillgrove.6564941/
28th June 2022: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-rvr-hits-23-8-g-t-gold-at-hillgrove.6814714/
5th July 2022: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-red-river-hits-257-g-t-gold-at-hillgrove-nsw.6828031/
11th August 2022: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-rvr-continues-strong-gold-results-at-hillgrove.6888364/
1st September 2022: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-wide-high-grade-gold-hits-at-hillgrove.6934363/
9th November 2022: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-strong-gold-results-at-hillgroves-eleanora-garabaldi.7077499/
11th November 2022: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-further-high-grade-results-at-bakers-creek.7081615/
In addition to this, LRV have had the following drilling announcements since acquisition.
8th May 2024: https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=sC1D18q3MHQ4ga8wwAQ7OOGJFoaCYRhqUt5Al1isf%2FTS9%2BAB82izhcvhSE3qly2T
21st November 2024: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-clarks-gully-and-bakers-creek-drilling-update.8325585/
3rd December 2024: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-further-excellent-clarks-gully-drill-results.8349543/
17th December 2024: https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=sC1D18q3MHQ4ga8wwAQ7ODB3DHWwoVnD6rF6DYsSSHYBtTLuvaTQiK3d5yV%2BZqAD
24th March 2025: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-bakers-creek-and-eleanora-garibaldi-drilling-update.8505243/
Collating all of the drill data and accounting for the true width of each individual drill hole gives the following table. Bear in mind that whatever is seen there is not the resource itself but the individual holes only.
Key assumptionsMy main concern and initial reticence in sharing this post was the deposit dimensions used. Digging through the announcements, we have the following;
- True width used as thickness (this was derived from each drill collar in the announcements).
- 1 m² cross-section.
- Density of 2.7 tonnes/m³
- Orebody at Hillgrove dips at 70 degrees to vertical.
- 3g/t cut-off for Eleanora-Garibaldi and Sunlight, 5g/t cut off for Clarks Gully derived from announcements.
When inputting these resources individually with the associated strike and depth dimensions, due to my amateur skill on the matter, incorrect estimates were being spat out by AI (as I don't have a resource estimating software). Instead, I took a 500m strike length average, 5m average width (despite deposits such as Bakers Creek being 10m average and Clarks Gully being 7m average) and a 200m depth extent (very shallow compared to what we see in the announcements).
- The major structures targeted by the company consist of 10km of strike in the Hillgrove Mineral Field.
- Eleanora-Garibaldi has a strike extent of 1.2km with a depth of 350m.
- Metz Mining centre (of which Sunlight is a lode) is defined over a 1km shear structure. (Blacklight and Syndicate were not considered).
- Clarks Gully has 300m of strike and depth of 300 (still open).
- Bakers Creek is 900m in length with depths reaching 550m.
As you can see in the table above, the late 2024 announcements from Clarks Gully heavily skewed the Sb grade and this was taken into account in the calculations so as to bring the resource back to the average of 0.41% Sb.
In updating the full resource estimate, and using the same deposit dimensions (500m strike, 5m average width, 200m depth extent) and a density of 2.7 tonnes/m³;
Total Tonnage
Volume = 500m x 5m x 200m = 500,000m³
Tonnage = 500,000m³ x 2.7 tonnes/m³ = 1,350,000 tonnes
Gold ContentUsing the gold average of 3.77g/t:
Gold (grams) = 1,350,000 tonnes x 3.77g/t = 5,089,500 grams
Gold (ounces) = 5,089,500 grams ÷ 31.1035 grams/ounce=163,628 ounces
Antimony Content
The combined 3.88% is not representative due to the high-grade outliers. Of all drill holes, 45% showed grades of Antimony, with an average grade of 0.41%. Hence, the calculations show that 45% of the resource contains Antimony.
Tonnage with Antimony
1,350,000×0.45=607,500 tonnes
Antimony (tonnes)=607,500 tonnes×0.0041×10=24,907.5 tonnes
Antimony (kt)=24.908 kt
As mentioned in my previous post, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to look at what a smaller and larger deposit would look like, just for the sake of comparability.
----
Scenario 1: Smaller Deposit (Strike Length 300m, Width 3m, Depth 150m)
Tonnage: 300×3×150×2.7=364,500 tonnes
Gold: 364,500×3.77=1,374,165 grams=44,208 ounces
Antimony (45% of resource): 164,025×0.0041×10=6,725 tonnes=6.725 kt.
Scenario 2: Larger Deposit (Strike Length 700m, Width 7m, Depth 250m)
Tonnage: 700×7×250×2.7=3,307,500 tonnes
Gold: 3,307,500×3.77=12,469,275 grams=400,929 ounces
Antimony (45% of resource): 1,488,375×0.0041×10=61,023 tonnes=61.023 kt.
----
AuEq estimation
This is the calculation provided based on July 2024 selling prices. The 2.281 conversion factor is the key number that we get here.
To provide an updated number, I used the following assumptions.
Gold Price: US$ 2600
Antimony Price: US$ 36,000 (realised price from Mandalay in Q4 2024)
Recoveries the same.
Exchange rate: 0.65
The new conversion factor becomes 4.6145, meaning that every 1% of Sb is equivalent to 461.45g/t in terms of value (this is because the Sb is expressed as a factor of 100 due to being in % and the gold is in ppm).
If we take the base case of 24.908kt and factor it for the new conversion rate, account for the recoveries and the new exchange rate, this comes to 344,830 ounces of Au equivalent.
Total base case ounces: 344,830 + 163,628 = 508,458 ounces AuEq.
When we consider spot price in the conversion factor and more accurate resource dimensions this number increases dramatically, but I did not venture too far into that territory so as not to get ahead of myself.
The above was just a thorough go at a resource estimation using rudimentary, albeit helpful tools. Please do not take it as being accurate as I took many liberties along the way. I did, however, try and be conservative, as I would rather this be an underestimation than an overestimation. Everything you see above is Inferred and would form what is otherwise in LRV's exploration target. Hopefully this helps educate a few posters here, as it did with me. A huge shoutout to the legend that is @Jalv who steered me in the right direction, its much appreciated. For those who are well versed on resource estimation, please feel free to rip this apart, as it was my first go at trying to piece this puzzle together, but hopefully not the last. The calculations and actual document are many pages long, but I condensed it to remove all the boring math and paragraphs of added filler. What you see here is just the important stuff.
It will be interesting to compare this with the actual MRE upgrade announcement to see where we land.
As always, this isn't investment advice, just some good fun.
Cheers,
PS
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