I don't think some here appreciate the importance of the rock...

I don't think some here appreciate the importance of the rock mechs annmnt as well as the farm-out and its implications to go ahead at Ice 2. The PLANNING of Ice 2 is NOT a go ahead.

Some have said that its a given. Well from Basinski's statement re we don't know if this new play WILL WORK in those lease comments I think not even the Eagle Ford Guru will be more positive until they have the rock mechs data/analysis in and even then He wont be satisfied until Ice 2 proves viability.

A couple of the doubts surrounding the HRZ was that the high porosity/permeability may allow collapse of the rock structure when fracked and have the obvious production consequences, proppant or none.

Another issue is that when the gas condensate expresses itself on reduction of pressure within the rock strata when fracking takes place the large condensate gas molecule chains can block the pore throats that lead to the permeability channels again resulting in quicker reduction of flows. This is probably doubtful given the high permeability.

Now rock mech data WILL HELP in this regard BUT ultimately, as these guys have stated, You must put it too the test with an actual horizontal well with frack stages as fracks effect the rock structure. This is why a brittle nature is preferred as well as non-plastic clays which they have already pretty much stated exists in the HRZ.

As they are proceeding to Ice 2 planning, it certainly looks like they think its a high possibility they will succeed. Theres much that can be achieved with different frack fluid types these days and they have a NATURAL FREEZER sitting above the HRZ if they need to cool the fluid to reduce fluidity of the HRZ, just one of techniques used to alter the strata conditions to allow fracking success. In some cases they may use liquefied Nitrogen. It may be a case that they need to use nitrogen in the warmer months and rely on the ambient low temperatures during winter.

The fact that they have moved back to 2D seismic for the lease wide analysis MAY intimate that any Farm-OUT partner will only be operating in the immediate Icewine acreage in the near future. In fact the more I think about it the more this is likely.

But again, the rock mechs with a farm-out to drill Ice 2 (which heavily implies a go ahead of Ice 2) and then Ice 2 results, hopefully with successful extraction of LTO with gas condensate at economic flow rates, will give us a much clearer idea of this NEW PLAY TYPE. Icewine is ANALAGOUS to some of the Lower 48 plays, NOT THE SAME. But then no Lower 48 play is the same as the next anyway. In fact they vary within each well as well !!!

That's why they utilize micro-seismics whilst fracking.

Like I say if there's a crew that can solve any issues in this regard its Basinski, and probably some of his old Conoco skunk team. We are not privy to this as he runs his own race at Burgundy. But you can be assured he will use all his available oil techs to solve any issues at Icewine. As one can see from the efforts he put into Eagle Ford he's not a quitter by a long shot and he's put too much into this to let it fail at the second last hurdle of rock structure, the last being how the gas condensate will interact with the throat pores and retention of permeability as mentioned above, and its effect on flow rates, which can only be proven with the Ice 2 well.

Bit to go yet ladies and Gents but we are getting there.

d.