LSE tonight, page-2844

Not wanting to be a damp squib but if we had 3 billion bbls of P1 reserves independently rated (and we are only currently at prospective resource rating of under 1 billion in 'independent' rating terms), AND we had developed the field and were in or near production mode AND if we were no further diluted in getting to that stage (ie no farm out/partnering) - then every US dollar increase in POO should translate to about 30 Aussie cents in share price.

But that swings both ways.

Clearly we are not there yet. In FA terms, I believe that the SP should primarily react to de-risking and to prize sizing as we head to our destination.

POO rises help the commercial de-risking (and moreso as we near production status), but a successful flow test at 2H will have a greater impact on both the geological de-risking and on the commercial de-risking. The converse also applies.

Any seismic adjusted increase in the independent assessment of potential resource will be a SP catalyst, but, IMO not as much as a migration in resource categorisation towards P1. This latter part takes time and treasure for 3D seismic and for further drilling.


My ticket has been bought for the destination at the end of the line.

Each to their own and DYOR. GLTA.