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Nick Miller

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46

11/07/17

19:33

Post #: 25801677
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Originally posted by AussieBarracuda ↑

Courtesy to Alaskabeliever LSE BB

Balanced thinking

So, I think if you got the head geologist and head engineer from EACH of the 2.5million frac jobs done around the world since the 1950s in a giant imaginary room and asked them "So was it a simple case of drilling to depth, forcing in under high pressure frac fluid with a proppant and then switching off the pump" most (imo) would say "absolutely not". [Although that's what our simplistic investors totally expected hence they run for cover every unemotive RNS] I think they'd each say that for each of their fracs tweeking and refining had to be done from the moment the well was spudded to HC first appearance. Perhaps all or a combination of the following were required in each instance: shoot the well with nitro, soak, shut in, scrub, artificial lift etc before the hydrocarbons began to flow from where they've been sitting in-situ for 50+ million years. Up until maybe 10 years ago each of these guys 'wildcatters' would have gone about their work without having to give a running commentary to and holding the hands of a bunch of internet investors cry babes. All they would have had to do is report as-and-when to the board - who themselves where undoubtedly geologically minded pragmatists. Imo, we have a wide range of investors for whom BBs (be it LSE Chat, Hot Copper, Interactive Investor etc) constitute the sum total of their research on an equity and that equates to massive volatility - any RNS other than a photo of Dave and Paul covered in a oil bukkake was gonna cause a back trace. Of course at the moment I'm uncomfortable and downbeat and yes a little squeamish - I'm not delusional and it's not every day I make a paper loss of £5k. But i see it this way..... Objective: get a brilliant flow rate and further shore-up the viability of the wider Icewine HRZ play. Now it's been stated that typically HCs don't make an appearance until ~30% of the frac fluid is recovered. So far (as of today's RNS) we've got back 16% so it would seem the shale it reluctant to give up its bounty - it does NOT mean that the HCs aren't there, and indeed if we continued as-is for another month+ (and hit the magic 30%) we may well see HCs but at a very lack lustre flow rate. Now.... The technique that it being switched to 'a shut in' with possible artificial lift (nodding donkey) - is all to create a substantial pressure differential. Like air escaping from a plane after a window has blown out. Isn't THAT what we want - a gusher? Or would we prefer we carry on with the current strategy and get a dripping tap! I loath having to wait a further 6 weeks. But I'd rather have my team being flexible and adjusting the game plan to achieve the optimum result! absens haeres non erit !

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Well said.

Personally I am only interested in hearing from people that have expertise in unconventional plays. Otherwise it is probably safe to assume the panic is being caused by uninformed retail investors (myself included) who read into things that they can't pretend to understand. Not suggesting have blind faith but there are clearly DTs here looking to ride the short term volatility waves.

88E Price at posting: 3.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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LSE tonight, page-6843

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