It's hard to justify a valuation anything above $2 for Austin,...

It's hard to justify a valuation anything above $2 for Austin, given the Bradken rejection. It's even possible to get to $1.50 to $1.75 very easily.

Here's the math:

If we assume EBITDA of $35m in 2014 and $48m in 2015, that averages $42m. Doing this, we give ANG the benefit of an earnings recovery in 2015. If we apply an EBITDA multiple of 5x to $42m, that's an enterprise value of $210m. Deduct expected net debt of $60m in 2015 and we get a market cap of $150m. That's a shareprice of $1.78. And that's even before discounting the time value of money (say 10% pa). So we're at $1.50.