Mate I hear you. Thanks to my buy in price I am still in the...

Mate I hear you. Thanks to my buy in price I am still in the green, but the loss of paper wealth has been hard to see.

Honestly, at the highs, I thought we would drop to around $10 and sit around there for a while before going up. Really surprised to see it where it is.

The price can do anything, and we all need to prepare for it. The current price of lithium is not that bad, we still make good profits at these levels. Car sales are not that bad either as per my posts in the EV thread, and even today's update from BYD.





The company says it has floors in place. How low is the floor?

The thing is, brine producers are the most profitable, and all hard rock will need to go out of business before we do. When I last looked yesterday, future prices were still optimistic (futures only represent something like 10% of volume, which the whole sentiment seems to be based on). With no dividend, what the paper value for this stock today is irrelevant to me (PLS hurts me more, as my dividend has disappeared, which I started to enjoy). For my circumstances I only really care what the price will be in 2030-35 when I intend to sell. I can ride this out, others in different circumstances may not.

We are in a capitulation phase, where momentum and pressure is just making everyone give up and sell. The sector is falling more than the lithium pricing mechanisms. How long will this pressure last? Who knows?

Being a low cost producer, the only thing I know is that the lower and longer the lithium price stays low, the less new supply will come online and the bigger the bang up it will be when the sector finally turns. LTM will be profitable at the lowest lithium price, and super profitable at high lithium.

Everyone, do what is right for you.

Below is one bearish forecast. If they are right, we survive at that price. Others won't. Either way, we are close to a potential bottom.



All the brokers are bearish, and that is not going to help. On the flip side, none of them got the last spring upwards correct. They are simply following the momentum trade, and to their credit it has been working.

Do OEMS want to lose their lithium supply and chase high prices in the years ahead if many go bust?