Even though I stated my confusion (still not a fan) at the timing of the CR… for good reason I have no part in those decisions, that was the decision of managment & the company which I have happily invested in.
Personal preferences aside, a bull case (becoming more realistic each week) for a start to 2026 is:
- Cash Reserves: Following the capital raise, LTR's cash position will stand at around A$500 million, providing ample liquidity for operations, growth initiatives or acquisitions. - Lithium Market Outlook: Analysts are now beginning to call the bottom of the market. Realistic projections for lithium carbonate are US$13,000 to US$18,000 (or more) per tonne by 2026, driven by tightening supply and unforeseen demand from the BSS surge.
Now the cherry on top…
- LG Energy Solution holds US$250 million (A$379 million) in convertible notes, (currently accounted as debt) with a conversion price of A$1.80 per share.
- Debt Reduction: Accounting for dilution, if LTR's share price reaches or exceeds $1.63, LGES may convert the notes, eliminating approximately A$379 million in debt from our balance sheet. In this situation, LTR would be debt free (net) and actually into the positive, with only the ford debt remaining. On top of that we would be making more and more money each quarter with costs relatively fixed as production continues to ramp up.
In this position I assume we would continue to service the ford debt at $10Mil per quarter until a few good quarters gave us the cash to pay it down.
What a difference a few months can make in an immature market…
This could be where we are at by Jan 2026: 1. Net debt free 2. Profitable 3. Robust and predatory, right at the turn…
Any other thoughts…how high can we go if this plays out?…Predictions?
LTR Price at posting:
$1.00 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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