Ok here is some further insight I got from Tesla’s annual report, along with my own musings.
I already previously said Tesla’s is restrained from increased production by battery supply, and you can read into that restrained supply of Li, imo. Most Tesla watches believed that Tesla would like to start producing low budget vehicle around the $25,000 us. However if they can’t get enough supply then why cannibalize your profits by producing a car that has a lot lower profit margin. Now we know they have an off-take agreement for 30% of our supply. We also know we have redesigned the mine at KV to increase the supply to 700kt per annum. I suspect a lot of this is due to Tesla future requirements. You also must keep in mind the expansion or build of a new Giga factory in Nevada by Tesla. Below is from an annoucment made the other day.
We will be investing over $3.6 billion more to continue growing Gigafactory Nevada, adding 3,000 new team members and two new factories: a 100 GWh 4680 cell factory (with capacity to produce enough batteries for 2 million light duty vehicles annually), as well as our first high-volume Semi factory.
I suspect by the time we ramp up production at KV, this expansion or new build in Nevada will be just about complete and ready to be commissioned. I also suspect that Tesla more than likely will take the uncommitted 10% of supply and is the most likely partner in any down stream processing option, even though that at the moment it is not their area of expertise.
I also note our other off take partner LGCHEM, has had a bust up with GM. Both GM and now BMW who use LGCHEM have had to recall all their ev vehicles due to battery problems.
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