Some guys are asking what's happening!
What else could happen any better than this! I'm not talking about the stock price though, it's too low anyway. I'm holding tight and waiting patiently as always. The sp of LTR is irrelevant to what it has. It's still definitely over $3 for me. The current price is still an illusion.
RIO's coming takeover bid for Arcadium is a very important thing which changes all the bad sentiment about the lithium sector.
RIO is a slow giant with AU$172b mcap. The biggest miner with BHP.
RIO says "I'm all in lithium" by the coming takeover bid. This now has woken up the whole stock market. It will also wake up BHP maybe.
The giants were sleeping although RIO was doing some work on some lithium projects over the years.
They didn't want to accept that lithium sector was going to be a very big industry. BHP underestimated the future scale of lithium industry. But they were wrong.
Lithium is being a big industry, Australia produces 50% of world's lithium but the Australian major miners have turned their heads to it! Strange!
But know, it's understood that RIO is all in.
I said this on my post #:65475998 on Dec.30, 2022;
"The lithium sector is going to be the 3rd biggest export sector of Australia in next 6 years IMO.
It may easily reach to $40b export value in 2029. Why the major miners like BHP & RIO can't see that and act accordingly is a mystery to me. Dinosaurs or stupidity?"
The majors like BHP and RIO must understand that the magnificent iron ore era is over.
Chinese gov. also understood that they had to take a different route for their policies. No more big infrastructure things will happen in China. So we will see much lower iron ore prices.
Iron ore, nickel, coal, atc, all of the big scale mining of those things are going to be slow down from now on.
BHP is still talking the same narrative; copper, copper, copper.
Yes we know copper is important but it's not easy to find a good copper resource. The best copper resources are in Katanga region of DRC again. Go to DRC and get them if you like.
I mean there is huge sovereign risks in all important metals.
It's so easy to see how big the lithium industry will be in very near future, just in 5 years.
So, it's such a big stupidity to underestimate the power of lithium mining in your home, I mean in Australia. BHP and RIO should have takenover PLS and LTR long time ago, but now they are not cheap indeed.
ARCADIUM's good assets are in brine resources. Not much and not ready for hard rock resources.
As you may remember I talked about LTR and Arcadium merger on my post
#:74662973.
I said; That is in the nature of business. It is for lowering costs, growth and being more profitable, competitive and/or monopolisation of market...No Greenbushes, no PLS, no MIN (Wodgina & Mt Marion). There is only ARCADIUM to merge with LTR when some certain credentials are considered IMO.
I said these because Arcadium is more of a western based customer oriented company.
Arcadium (LTM) is already a US company with
2 brine projects.
Olaroz brine is already producing lithium carbonate in Argentina and it's being converted to lithium hydroxide in its Japanese plant which
Toyota is a partner.
It is also developing
Sal da Vida lithium brine project in Argentina. These two projects have 650mg/lt and 750mg/lt lithium in their brine respectively. These grades (in ppm or mg/lt) are much better than other salt lakes in Argentina however the impurities like magnesium which hard to remove is still high. Hence the cost is not close to Atacama projects of ALB and SQM.
However Arcadium doesn't have a producing hard rock project.
Arcadium has Nemaska Lithium (hard rock) project which is also being developed in the James Bay region of Canada (was bough by Livent after Nemaska lithium bankrupted). The other project is the James Bay (hard rock) lithium project (inherited from Galaxy). It is also at the same region and being developed atm. The James Bay project's development is announced to be halted in recent Arcadium reports.
The problem with these projects is they are going to be high cost projects as the region is frozen in many months of the year. A processing plant must be working 24/7. When you stop it and start again is being very costly. Everything must be under cover, etc. I have posted a lot of info about that as well.
You can have a look at my post #:
69270980 about James Bay Canadian projects. It;s all very clear.
Arcadium also has Mt Cattlin project (had originally 12mt resource) at south of WA but I'm not considering it as as a profitable one. It has already run out of quality ore and nearly dead IMO. However it's plant may be moved to Buldania (has 15mt resource) and start production there in the future.
So basically Arcadium has not a very good hard rock resource.
LTR MIGHT BE THE NEXT FOR RIO
There you go. Let's think about this. If RIO is all in, then they must be knowing that they need a good hard rock resource in Australia. There is nothing better than LTR. They all know that well.
RIO'S ACTION MAY TRIGGER BHP
Yes that is also possible. BHP may go bogger, may big on Albemarle, PLS or LTR. Time will tell.
WE HAVE NO PROBLEM.
Let's keep producing and generating cash.
If anyone wants to make a bid they are welcome. It must be a reasonable and fair offer, otherwise will be rejected.
In terms of blocking stakes, Hancock is not a big hurdle for us and for RIO IMO. GIna is smart but I think her advisors couldn't calculate that LTR had such a loyal, well educated and tough retail holder base.
She knows well that we are not going to sell less than $3, also she should know that we will ask for more than $3 now,.. after suffering a lot, we have come this point after taking huge risks. Hancock listed all thes risks on its press release as if it was scaring us. Anyway we didn't scared. We trusted our management and we have come to this point.
My suggestions would be;
She can think to make a JV with RIO and come with a good offer, or we don't care. We are producing and generating cash now. No one can stop us.
Yes we are all still behind Tim Goyder.
We are the largest holder of LTR. It's obvious now.
Post #
:67040705 on March 30, 2023.
(I used "I am" in this post because it was considered on my old post that I was directing members here. That's fine. I am using "I am" instead of "We are")
Anyone who wants to buy out LTR should know that I am behind Tim Goyder.
- I will back him and fight together with him to the end no matter what.
- I am one of Tim's loyal non-institutional shareholder.
- I think shareholder like me with more than 50% of the shares, not including the managements 20% shareholding but including some of the Top-20 WILL SUPPORT TIM'S DECISION.
- I have the power to stop the buyers and shorters to do any kind of nasty corporate games.
Can't you see I am not selling anything even though you shorted 200m stocks?
I am holding tight because I believe in our projects and what Tim Goyder says and does.
- I have invested my hard earned money from the start and carried a lot of risks along the way.
- I know the real value of our projects.
- I will not give it to you cheap.
- I don't want to sell it cheap.
- I even don't need to sell it.
- I am happy to go for production.
- I know how stupid things you are doing.
- I know how desperately you want our project
- I know you invested stupidly high amount of money on your project but running out of ore in next 8-9 years.
- Do not waste any more money on shorting, you will burn more money.
- Shorting from one hand and buying from the other hand is not ethical even not legal. It's illegal.
If you want LTR pay the price whatever is asking Tim Goyder.
I will accept whatever he says.
(20min delay)