Thanks for your reply. I wasn't trying to be a kill joy on this thread but merely looking for some intelligent discussion.
Your share price calculation stacks up at US$10,000/kg and PE of 10.
Your post prompted me to go back and look at the effect of SC6 price on car prices. I have researched this before but unfortunately didn't keep any notes. I remember the effect of a lithium price rise not having as much effect as I thought it would. However, I don't think it was as insignificant as my calculation below so I may have made an error. I haven't had time today to research it properly and have attempted to do it from first principles which is fraught with danger, so someone please correct me if I'm wrong. @Scarpa has always been across this area, so maybe he can add to this post?
I'll base my calcs on a 100kwh battery for simplicity, which is equivalent to a Tesla S.
7.5kg SC6 per kg LCE 0.623kg LCE per KWh (62.6kg LCE in Tesla S)
Therefore, 7.5 x 0.623kg SC6 per 0.626kg LCE per KWh = 7.5 x 0.626 x 100kg SC6 per 100KWh = 469.5kg SC6 per Tesla S
Cost of SC6 in Tesla S, At 4,000/tonne = 4 x 469.5 = US$1,878 At 10,000/tonne = 10 x 469.5 = US$4,695
If the above calcs are correct, increasing SC6 price from US$4,000 to US$10,000/tonne, will increase Telsa S battery price by US$2,817 = AUD$4,180
This doesn't seem much when talking about a AUD$150,000 car. Price probably starts to bite for the cheaper EVs, albeit the lithium content for the batteries that goes I those cars is less. I won't bore you any further with calcs.
There is clearly scope for the lithium price to stay high and not disrupt the transition. How high I don't know.
My share price guesses are clearly at the low end for this competition, even though my guesses predict a 20% price uplift over the next 18mths. I guess I'm predicting BEOT to hang around for longer than we'd all like and they seem to control price. It is clear to everyone why they do this. At some point, the demand for shares will be too much for any one large player and hopefully we soar.
(20min delay)