Many thanks @Tünnes for the bit of fun.
My guesstimate in the absence of any further publicbids; no unexpected drill results or news; and with a positive DSO / fundingannouncement:
31/12/23 $3.25
30/06/24 $3.75
31/12/24 $4.75
Always a challenge predicting future marketsentiment. When the cash starts flowing it’ll be a different story. I allowedfor a degree of unexpected delays and overruns and as such not expecting nameplatecapacity until ’25.
(Even then there are so many moving parts to theequation and everything can change significantly in either direction literallyin an instant).
Having said that, additional takeover and mergerconversations (particularly of a more informal nature) are highly likely IMO,with simple cash T/O suitors unlikely to reach the same ballparkas our Board or LTH at any time due to the bigger picture long term potentialof the asset, market, downstream optionality, and the legacy being created forTG. I also don't expect we will hear about most, if any, of these
conversations (other than potentially through themedia rumour mill).
A cash and script offer by a fellow ASXlisted participant with existing cashflows and established dividendstream, possibly with the sweetener of a Board position for TG, and asignificant leadership role for TO (potentially as MD of the Lithium division),would address a number of items for our asset rich / cash poor longterm faithful and board. Ensuring the journey continues; cashflowsare brought forward; scale is such to protect all parties from any'opportunistic low-ball takeover', and all is not lost in CGT.
In my opinion, all going to plan, we all winwhether we go the T/O or Merger route or stay the current course. Possibly justfaster vs greater.
If we do stay the course however, I for onewould like to see a percentage of profits kept for future development, such asfor the current proposed 2027 increased mine capacity and possible 2030 Hydroxideprocessing plant (and/or sooner locally produced 30%+ Spodumene concentrateplant), but would also like to see a percentage of profits (as high as 30%)paid out as dividends following reaching nameplate capacity, possibly asearly as 2025.
Dividends, and the transition of LTR from a 'speculative' share, to not only a'growth', but also an 'income' share is where I see the Lion closer toreachingtrue value.
The share price should look significantly differentwhen that time comes, and I expect a large percentage of those tight hands ofmy fellow LTH will be cemented from that day forth. That time can not cometoo soon for many.
Regarding the financing options to fund Liontown’s growth/progression- with the cashflows expected from operations (refer to Anteviariel's financialmodelling post #65809578 for an idea of the potential) it is reasonable thatmuch of what will be required may be able to be funded internally, even withpaying out dividends following commencement of full production, and forwhat is not, some debt is good debt. All travelling in-line with the Company’sown projections, Liontown shareholders would likely not be afraid of LTR takingon additional debt financing as required based on the expectedROI from these significant value-adds.
Although my personal dividend aspirationsfor Liontown are in line with Anteviariel’s financial modelling, they doconflict with TG’s own words during an interview a few weeks ago at ResourcesRising Stars (referring to ‘From the Helm – With Tim Goyder..’ listenfrom 5.14 on), whereby he mentions hoping to be going Downstream fromyear 6 onwards, and quite confident of paying dividends during that period.
I’m hoping that this is just another of thosewonderful occasions where the Lion under promises and over delivers, andthat we see them from 2025. If nothing else comes from this post, I’mhoping to at least plant the seed to anyone with an ear of the big man thatthis would be an excellent outcome to aim for and that it may indeed beachievable, all things considered.
All just my opinion. I thank everyone for theirs..especially those who make the time to contribute their considered opinions andanalysis on a more regular basis than myself. DYOR as always.
Look forward to catching up with many after the AGMas usual. and very happy to be way off in my price (so long as the actuals arehigher).
All my very best to all holders.
(20min delay)