Just back into it after my trip, now if you really want to know what is happening with NCM you have to hear what was being said over in Kalgoorlie about Telfer.
The rumor is that they are still not getting the grade reconciliation results to confirm mine plan and that they may have to write off some resources and reserves. Now I have no idea if this is true or not but it would help explain the drag on SP. If so, and you knew this weeks ago, you "sell the rumor buy the fact". This is the age old strategy on bad news. This is the opposite of 'buy the rumor sell the fact' on good news.
Thing is HOWEVER - we do not know WHEN or IF the news will be released or IF it is even true. I think the points you make also have a bearing on this SP activity Mick - thank you.
Australia also getting sold off in the past week - does this mean our bonds and equities are getting sold off in expectation of a new stance by the RBA to lower rates? Have not had time to really study this theory. This would lower the Fx rate and therefore hit offshore Funds who could be short term sellers.
HUI up - XGD and AUD down hmmmm. But large volumes hard to pick up on many of these stocks as they are not liquid enough for the big players to jump in and out of. SO I would be hedging the currency instead. Temporary move down for the gold stocks I am sure, maybe the XGD is small enough to push around and bigger players have lost control of the HUI LOL.
The SP activity across the sector still indicates a coil up is intensifying. Look at TAM - bought that at 85c a few weeks back, NMG at new high this week and up 30% since I released the report at end June. And RRL still sitting at $3, SBM still firm, PRU & OGC ditto.
KCN weak because they are waiting for the go ahead in Thailand and being held up - so an obvious reason for SP weakness. All mixed but why the new highs on some and strong performance if we are about to crash - I don't buy it myself.
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FYI I got stopped out personally (while not looking) in NCM at a tad over $40 - however I did not have this set for my Fund B. This was a stinker and I have not seen a new buy signal as yet. Seems to be set for a lower push briefly but keeping my mind open and watching.
As I locked that last capital in at $39.31 (for the Fund) I will just have to wait for the next sell signal above that level to work the money harder. I am reasonably confident we will see it higher soon as the XGD is telling me things are better than NCM is making it look.
On the last buy signal I flagged - as I said - I did not know if it was A rally or THE rally ready to see NCM break out and run. But is was a nice profit. Wish I had time to sit and play this to the max.
Anyway - hope the NCM bad news comes out quickly now if the rumor is true. Please DO NOT trade on this I have no verification whatsoever or knowledge of timing etc. Telfer is a long way from Kalgoorlie yet it is a small industry.
Back to work an article to finish off tonight and a report to write this week.
Take care, DYOR CW
NCM Price at posting:
$38.17 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
