I wondered about a take over too.
Personally I see a share price of $.40c by the end of 2018 at current RE prices. I estimated a FCF of close to $200m at current production and prices, enough so that Lynas will be essentially debt free (assuming full bond conversion) by September Q 2018.
$200m profit values the company somewhere near $2.5bn and with 7bn shares is close to $0.40c
What's exciting is that should demand stay strong and the price of RE hold close to today's prices Lynas can easily borrow then to double or triple production. The costs would be significantly less that what was spent the first time around. Plucking figures out of the air, $200-500m? Certainly the deposit is big enough so no restrictions there. How long it takes to build and ramp up I don't know either, 2 years maybe? Enough that the borrowings would be repaid from current production.
Then Lynas is generating a $500m in profits and maybe the SP can tease $1?
For this reason I think shareholders would value expansion more than dividends (though a small one might be nice for show) or a share buy back. I hope any TO is knocked back by SH, but who knows who they are now with 7bn in play.
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I wondered about a take over too. Personally I see a share price...
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Last
$8.09 |
Change
0.070(0.87%) |
Mkt cap ! $7.561B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$8.15 | $8.27 | $8.08 | $35.31M | 4.353M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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2 | 7192 | $8.08 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$8.10 | 4833 | 2 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 500 | 8.040 |
4 | 4222 | 8.030 |
1 | 100 | 8.020 |
2 | 742 | 8.010 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
8.110 | 8945 | 1 |
8.120 | 22984 | 2 |
8.140 | 1000 | 1 |
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8.170 | 12051 | 2 |
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