LYC - expansion, page-41

You guys are thinking way too short term. Neodymium magnets are five times more powerful than regular magnets. When you want to convert electricity to motion, you want to use the good magnets. You get much stronger acceleration, and more efficient use of your battery's limited electricity. Hence more miles per charge. Without a good battery in the middle, your $30,000 electric car is just an expensive paperweight. At current prices, electric cars are only paying about $150 for their most important component. They could pay 10 times as much without blinking an eye, more likely 20 times as much before the point of pain gets so bad that they feel the need to settle for making a second rate electric car. The supply of neodymium will be the limiting factor on the growth of electric cars all through the 2020's and 2030's. Enough won't be available at any price. So the car manufacturers will gradually accept the need to pay up. I estimate by 2030, neodymium will go for 15 times the current price, or about $1,000 / kg (US). Lynas current production is 6 million kg per year, which could easily be expanded to 10 million over the next decade or so. So 10 million kg at $1,000 per kg = 10 billion (US) revenue per year. No need to bring production costs into the calculation, this almost all pure profit. Value that 10 billion per year profit at a PE of 30 and you get a $300 billion valuation for Lynas by 2035 or so. So I think we're realistically looking at a 200 to 300 bagger within 20 years.