LYC MP Price Gap

As I watched LYC and most of my watch list drop on Friday, I noticed MP was actually up during the morning. I decided to do this comparison:
Friday Market Cap in AUD MP=6.52B LYC=4.98B. MP market cap 51% greater, so if they were the same LYC shares should be AUD 7-8.
But they aren't the same. Let's assume that MP's value reflects the prospect that it will be a LYC in 3-5 years, then if the current value reflects a 30% discount the future market cap would be $9.3B and at a 60% discount future MC = $16.3B.
If MP's closing price of AUD38.17 was fair, the LYC's price should range from $10-18 or USD $8-14 (compared to MP discounted 30-60%)
Alternatively if LYC's closing price of AUD $4.78 was fair, then MP should be AUD $15-27 or USD $12-20
I realized there are so many factors I'm not addressing here, such as future RE prices, production growth, etc. Based on this simple comparison it appears that either LYC should be trading at 2-4X its current price or MP should only be trading at 40-70% of its current price. Of course, it's probably in the middle. Frankly I think the discount on MP should probably be greater than 60%, but this is just the start of a discussion.