You are having problems because without many assumptions you...

You are having problems because without many assumptions you cannot come to a fair assessment. There are just to many variables at this time. Many will resolve in the next year. Some may take as long as Sept 2020. A short list.

1.NdPr price Recent price rise has been fantastic for the company. Key question are.
will it continue
will it correct.
Much of the sales are under contract the contract delay is unknown. common opinion is 90 days.
2. Number of shares Mt K could obtain is over 3 B shares if all debt is converted and all warrants exercised. Still unclear if all of these will be completed by Sept 2020.
3. Mining campaign. We have been told that current ORE runs out next summer. Lynas will need to start a new campaign. We have been told that a major overburden removal is needed first. We have no idea of, cost, grade of new ore, what will be capitalized and what will be expense.

So I make my assumptions and think Just under 1C a share for FY '18
Others make different assumptions, that are carefully worked out, and say just under 3C. I disagree but cannot say they are wrong.
Others put out numbers with no back up whatsoever but feel real good about them.

So read make your own assumptions.

I know many of my assumption will change with annual report . They will further change with every report after that. Lynas future change tremendously with REFI in Q4. The price change for NdPR since then has been huge about, plus 100% in 8 months. Every document from company will make the impact to the picture clearer. I personally think it will take at least two Qs of data, Feb of 2018, to understand even half of what P&L will look like for Lynas going forward. The whole picture is always fluid and this is true for every company no mater what the size.


I originally agreed with 90 day contract delay. I have no data that says it is wrong. I am starting to feel it is longer. Longer is not bad it does slow down earnings when prices are rising. It helps earnings allot when prices fall. All commodities cycle. If someone wants to disagree point out one that does not.

Lynas will announce the interest change below. This will give a clear indication of delay because Price rise has been so rapid. (providing it does not dramatically correct)

"If, on the last day of any calendar month (“Test Date”) the weighted average sale price of NdPr products sold by the Group in the immediately preceding 6 calendar months is US$38 per kilogram or greater, the interest rate will increase to 1.875% per annum, effective on and from the day after the Test Date. "



https://www.lynascorp.com/Shared Do...026 Amendments to Debt Facilities 1609212.pdf