LYC - NdPr Price, page-7

Up to 430 - 440 almost 10% in two days and 40% in 4 weeks, 75% since last November. Anybody that is not concerned about the magnitude of this rise should go study some economics and history.

Lynas needs steady price rises not another boom bust cycle. CAGR for magnets ranges from 8 % to 10% for 2016 to 2024. Can anybody justify this price increased based on these GAGR numbers?

Here are some estimates of Perm magnet growth Can anybody explain why they think current prices are sustainable. Pay attention to $ market sizes most are for finished magnets ready to be installed.

8.9% 2013 to 2019
http://www.micromarketmonitor.com/market-report/neodymium-iron-boron-magnets-reports-7154231446.html

CAGR of 8.8%
http://www.marketsandmarkets.com/PressReleases/permanent-magnet.asp

This is most aggressive demand forecast I could find recording an overall CAGR of over 10% during the timeframe of 2016 - 2024.
http://www.wvillustrated.com/story/...egister-a-cagr-of-more-than-10-over-2016-2024
NO CAGR but some very interesting charts.
https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/permanent-magnet-market

This could go another year maybe even 2 or 3 years. But the higher the prices goes over what demand-supply can justify the worse the correction will be when it happens. If it looks too good to be true it probably is. Does anybody want a repeat of 2010 – 2016? China REE oxide manufacturing is still running below capacity. China gov still has lots of NdPr in reserves. If stockpiling and or speculation is involved in this price rise ( I think it is but have zero proof) then all they have to do is say they are going to increase supply and prices fall dramatically, without even doing it. If no Stockpiling or Speculation then the prices will fall slowly if they increase supply slowly.

I know this is only about 25% of what we saw in 2011 but the industry has experience. Toyota still has the plans for a 3 phase RAV 4. Tesla can quickly change to 3 phase on model 3. BMW and Mercedes both dropped 3 phase plans with lower Nd price, they still have knowledge. As AUS told us DE Walt already has many tools out that it is the customer’s choice if perm magnets are worth the price. Drop in demand in response to high NdPr prices will be faster than 2011.