lyc price and rare earth index, page-5

The SM is still looking at the rear mirror when they the SM sould be forward looking.

Current RE basket price at bottom signs.
1. $37.45 for so long - set by chinese as minimum price?
2. Winter months factory closure - therefore not buying.
Buyers to diversify supplies from new producers outside China. Esp Japan.
3. Buyers rely on running down Stockpile and delay replenishment due to anticipated new supplies and contracts from outside China.

Price hike signs.
1. Orders resume after winter holidays and restocking.
2. China and ROW consumption increase due to growth.
Predicted strong growth =/>10% in NdPr, Dy, La, Ce
These products are > 60% of LYC basket production revenue and should be easily marketed esp Europe.
3. China low on stocks due to CNY and winter holidays.
China vehicle strong production growth and capital projects will further cut back on exports.
4. Black market stocks run out due to 2. and govt control.
5. Lower Chinese supply due to mines closure and govt restrictions on output and environment concern.
6. Outside China supplies lower than expected. Eg MolyCorp.