The "supply" you are talking about might just be the preparation...

The "supply" you are talking about might just be the preparation of institutional investors for the next capital raising. They are hedging the shares they are underwriting in advance.

The main problem Lynas currently faces are the falling REO prices. There are three big players ramping up production at the moment, Lynas, Molycorp and Baotou.

Since the full production seems to be the only way to achieve the costs of $15/kg this might just cause the prices to drop further if demand for LREE isn't picking up. This is usually what happens in heavily oversupplied markets.

In the current market situation Lynas has to lower the costs significantly to below $12/kg. China is likely to adjust their production costs due to environmental standards and modernization. They used to produce in the 5-6 dollar range and might move to 7-8 dollars/kg.

In order to be prepared for a phase of continuously falling REO prices Lynas needs at least one more big CR, that's for sure and that's why the price is pretty far from moving north atm.