Ousia, there is a great deal of data around that suggests your "realised" prices are about 20/25% over expectations, including the last Q report that suggested Chinese domestic "plus".
A quarter's lost production is still a quarter of lost sales revenue, and probably more importantly a lost opportunity to lock contract customers in.
You're missing the reality of customer qualification in that it differs from a few weeks to several months depending on element & customer. Lynas is unable to supply those that have accepted or those that will in the next month or so, and if any want material with varied spec for further qualification Lynas is unable to produce that either.
I've already made my point re competition with Moly in Japan, not good, particularly as Ph2 is underpinned by Japanese sales.
Risk has now skewed away from market, which does appear to be improving, back to execution, and a black hole for 11 weeks.
LYC Price at posting:
40.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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