lyc sp and the price of rees

Hello Lynasheads.
I would like to bring a topic up for discussion that I saw briefly mentioned in a post a day or two back and I think is quite relevant. I would like to discuss the price of REEs, current, future and even past and see what what impact and influence contributing posters feel this has had/is having on our current SP. Also the mechanisms behind the movements in the actual REE prices themselves.

The reason I think this is a worthwhile topic to discuss on its own thread is that obviously the price of the product we intend to sell, i.e. REEs is undoubtedly linked to our SP and places a possible ceiling on how our SP growth will evolve at any given time.
I understand this topic may have been discussed before, but we have understandably been preoccupied with other issues of late and market conditions are forever changing so thought it worth bringing up this topic at this point in time.

What makes this especially worthwhile for discussion IMO is that REEs are not a bulk commodity like Iron ore, Copper, Wheat, or Beef for example. They are speciality metals with a rapidly growing but still small (tonnage wise) market.
So a specialized product and market.

To start the conversation I find it curious that they have been massive reported cuts, production wise from the Chinese, and the cuts have been ongoing for some time now and we have still seen REE price declines. Ok things may be stabilizing now, hopefully even heading back up, but what do people really feel is going on behind the scenes.

I will take some things as givens(though these may be challenged)

Supply has been dropping out of China

Demand is steadily growing

There has been no new supply

Chinese black market supply is reported to have been severely reduced (but is it true, well worth discussion?)

Impact of possible previous Chinese hoarding coming on market?


So some ramblings there to get the party started.

Posters may choose to say REE prices have no impact on our current SP if they wish to make a case for that.
My particular area of interest is whats really been going on in China, because if production has been so slowed as they claim for as long as they claim and demand has only risen then why is the price of the raw metals so relatively weak?
Though macro world economic conditions may also obviously play a part in sentiment and so SP growth.
Also fashion, sadly we are a vogue driven society nowadays, even to some extent on the stock market, is it so that REEs were so 2011? Ha ha!

BTW Im not at all a believer in greater world conspiracies where the shorters are in bed with the REEs producers who are in bed with the Chinese who are in bed with the Banks.Lol! I think dodgy stuff is going on all over the place but I have enough faith in peoples ineptitude and greed that I find it impossible to believe everyone is cooperating together to conspire against us.

If I was investing in a sector that I thought was totally rigged I would indeed need "my head read" to use one of my old Dads expressions.

But I do think there are bits of dodginess going on all over the place and more so market influences and factors that we may not yet understand and seldom discuss. So this is not intended to be a conversation about shorters(who are annoying however already get discussed a lot) but a chat about how REE prices may be impacting on our current and future SP. Its a very important topic IMO and I must admit I don't fully understand it.

Any thoughts people?

Cheers Tretch