It notes that China's new subsidies are small but could be expanded to put pressure on startups elsewhere.
For my own thoughts on the REE pricing I'll admit quite a lot of confusion too. Here are some things I've heard or thought:
1. We're in the hangover after a price bubble and things haven't stabilised yet but there's likely to be a 'new normal' for prices somewhat above the previous normal. My guess for 2. There has been demand destruction both because of the price bubble and (Japan) ubcertainty of supply. 3. Inventories have been run down and if there's reliable available product they'll probably stay low. 4. In the current basket price of $41/kg only about $12 comes from the ones prone to oversupply: Cerium, Lanthanum & Samarium.
The restart of Moly may well hurt the price of those 3 (and possibly neodymium) but IMO won't touch the other elements because Moly's production of them will be miniscule. Then there's the question: can Moly survive? I wouldn't bet on it.
LYC Price at posting:
72.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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