I will - in the following - analyse the outlook of lynas considering every single oxide, that plays a big enough role for lynas basket price. I use metal page predictions for 2017, BCC prediction for 2016 and calculate an avarage of both:
So what we can see is, that the falling prices of most light rare earth and the rising prices of most heavys seems to be neutral overall lynas basket price!
It seems, that the different development of the prices of the havys and lights gives a sustainable basket price of around 50 US$/kg of lynas.
The following table shows a sustainable basket prices of around 98 US$/kg for Duncan!:
The percentage of duncans heavys is not very big, but the AMOUNT of duncans heavys is very big, because duncan is rich of rare earth oxided at all!
The hastings project has a percentage of heavys of about 80%, but the AMOUNT of heavy is far lower than the AMOUNT of heavys of mt weld and duncan!
Duncan is a real HAEVY RARE EARTH source! Only looking of % without looking at the details is misleading. Hopefully the world understands, that lynas is a (if not THE) havy rare earth playser in reality!
LYC Price at posting:
72.0¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
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