lyc stage 3

Molycorp announcement this week raises many questions and will force a response from lyc shortly IMHO.
1. Capital raising and sell down is an orderly way for the seed investors to get their equity out and is a good move for all rare earth stocks.
2. Jp Morgan and Morgan Stanley are joint underwriters so will be interesting to see if ms sells any of its 8%in lyc to put into MVP float??
Did they start this sell on Friday??
We will know in the next couple of weeks if they have and this may the lyc sp short term but they will not want to see it go down much as it will effect the price of the Mcp float so we should be ok here?
3. Doubling of production to 40000 tons by 2014 by Mcp wil help plug the anticipated supply gap forecast by lyc but it is also clever marketing for their cap raising IMHO.
How can they do this for 250mill yet it's costing lyc 250m for 12000 tons?.
If they double their production to 40000 tons they will run out of resources in under 15 years as they had a mine life of 30 years at 20000 tons.
Lyc has a mine life of 30 years at 22000 tons as well.
For some elements they may run out a lot sooner sooner.
So this means they will need to takeover some smaller miners as well??
Also they have very few contacts signed so far unlike lyc that may be close to sold out to stage 2.
Will lyc announce a stage 3 shortly??
IMHO yes as lyc has the first mover advantage here and they may as well hammer it home. Lyc then will also be looking to expand it's resource base by acquiring the likes of ntu.
So what we are seeing is the birth of an industry with lyc and Mcp becoming the bhp and rio of the rare earths world.
Before any other competitors come on line lyc and then Mcp will have long term supply contracts like the 10 year sojitz deal stitched up and they wil continue to mine and acquire as do bhp and rio.
Lyc will become a multi mine diversified rare earth miner and even when the rare earth price falls to $40k with expanded production they will be worth more than double where they are today.
Exciting times ahead and look forward to hear Curtis/lyc response to molycorp shortly.
IMHO look out for lyc stage 3