People are naturally excited as the date approaches (June?)when...

People are naturally excited as the date approaches (June?)when the Malaysia issues have been sorted out and Lynas might start production.

Likewise, there is excitement over the US and Europe battling it out with China in the WTO, perhaps providing further opportunities for Lynas.

But, we should keep level heads. Lynas cannot supply all of the specific REE oxides which clients require, because it does not have them in abundance in its REE portfolio.

As posted previously, the percentage of REES at Mt Weld are, based on Lynas website:

Rare Earths Oxides
CLD Duncan
Lanthanum Oxide 23.88% 24.87%
Cerium Oxide 47.55% 39.38%
Praseodymium Oxide 5.16% 4.75%
Neodymium Oxide 18.13% 17.89%
Samarium Oxide 2.44% 2.83%

Subtotal 97% 90%

In summary, Lynas's REEs are predominantly LHREEs, especially Cerium and Lanthanum. Neodymium, while a LHEE, has a high value.

Lynas does not have a significant HREE base, which would require a different processing method (see NTU's recent presentation)

Remerging that REEs are not substitutable, Lynas's main client base will come from industries which require these specific LREEs oxides in their manufacture.

Note - as Dudley Kingsworth points out - the increased availably of specific REE oxides may stimulate other uses and applications which are not apparent now. But we do not know that.

So we can be enthusiastic - Lynas should retain first-mover advantage - but remember that Lynas in its present form cannot be a global supplier of a complete portfolio of REES.

But if Lynas formed an alliance with NTU (HREEs), SER/AXE (graphite) and Metallica (scandium), that would be a different story.

And it follows, that Lynas' main competition will likely come from other producers of those same oxides, whether that be Molycorp or the emerging Chinese exporter of LANRES, Jiangxi Copper.