LYC 1.89% $7.84 lynas rare earths limited

I have gone through all research analysts, Citi, Goldman Sachs,...

  1. 121 Posts.
    I have gone through all research analysts, Citi, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Patersons, and CLSA. The more I read, the more I think their assumptions are weak and volatile.

    1. All analysis are based in an average sale price between 25$ the more conservative; and 40$ the most optimistic. Long term average price 35$ could be realistic starting from 2014 / 2015.

    2. However, we are in a very manipulated market in the short term were SHORT SELLERS are the kings. We have to recognise it. They do a brilliant job pressing Lynas in the downside in order to have enough margin to repurchase their shares. Let´s leave them make their own business. But, take THIS OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE YOURS.

    3. If price falls to 0.60$ as many of you expect, buy all shares you can.

    4. Accorddingly to all analysts, news comming from LAMP will come up in November 2011. Be prepared to buy. Before. Not after. Then is too late.

    5. October will be pure speculation for Lynas share price. Take advantage to buy, because you probably will not see these prices ever again.

    6. Ending 2011 will be very interesting. Very much indeed. specially because Chinese make their own plans for 5 year time. (I hope you have all read Critical Materials strategy december 2010 - US Defense Department in depth. By the way, most mentioned analysts above I m sure they havent).
    REE retrictions will still be there and prices will rise again by year end.

    7. Probably by year end, world economic uncertainty will have more visibility. We all know Greece is Bankrupt. And politicians have postponed their decitions to Novemeber because: a) EFSF has to be enlarged and b) banks have to be recapilised in Europe. This requires time. And they are so blocked and paralised they don´t know how to transmit this to the market. That´s the reason why they are politicians. And markets is punishing uncertainty because is not coutable.

    8. If you think Lynas stake in NTU is opportunistic, it is not. NC knows perfectly that he can add value to Lynas through an acquisition (is soon at this stage), or with a long term agreement with HREE. That´s why drilling in past weeks for NTU was so important. Dysprosium, Europium and Terbium are waiting for Lynas. Increase dramatically in teh upside average sale composition will be a second step for Lynas management.

    9. Based in a very conservative price of 65$, LYC EPS 2012 will be 0,32$ (not 140$ that it is now); 2013 EPS 0,64$. Taken into account market quote takes Forward PE, we could be talking mid 2012 of a target price betwen 7 and 15$.

    10. One day you will be desperate because price has sunk. Next morning you could wake up with a heart attack because one big player wants the company at 10 or 15$. NC has a great vision and deserves a confidence vote.

    So, my final recommendation is:

    take an aspirine every day to liquid your blood so you can save your life and stabilise your arrythmia s and... enjoy the end of the story.
 
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Last
$7.84
Change
0.145(1.89%)
Mkt cap ! $7.187B
Open High Low Value Volume
$7.72 $7.84 $7.70 $1.180M 152.2K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
4 723 $7.83
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$7.84 929 5
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Last trade - 10.39am 08/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
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