lynas, a sophisticated outlook!

Dear down under guys and girls,

i am investing since about 6 years into rare earth explorers. its been a while, i did basis research about the rare earth market. but i now thought, its time to do new research and i did spent my sunday for doing some research over the rare earth market in the sence of a lynas-view.

As often written here and elsewhere, its nearly 100% only considered the outlook of REO-demand/supply/prices/lynas-basket as whole. Not oxide by oxide! But so, there is an information gap, because the REO outlook by ALL oxides is to unsophisticated, because the outlook is very very different for the single oxides, as known....

Therefor I will - in the following - analyse the outlook of lynas considering every single oxide, that plays a big enough role for lynas basket price. I use metal page predictions for 2017, BCC prediction for 2016 and calculate an avarage of both:

So what we can see is, that the falling prices of most light rare earth and the rising prices of most heavys seems to be neutral overall lynas basket price!

Till i did calculate that i did have some fear of the future basket price of lynas. but it seems, that the different development of the prices of the havys and lights gives a sustainable basket price of around 50 US$/kg of lynas.

I did not calculate, but i am sure the rising heavys and falling lights means for the basket prices of the Duncan Deposit, that its basket price will rise signifikant till 2016/2017! I will calculate that later...

Cheers and good luck from germany.