lynas, a value investment..., page-13

Hiya Chihawk,

Sincerely hope you are closer to the mark than me but I would not invest dependant on those numbers. While there is little doubt we are in the commodity bull run of our lifetimes nothing goes in a straight line forever. I note that a number of the respected commodity traders are calling for a correction into the northern summer and REE's won't be immune if it happens. Call it a guess but I think we may have seen, or close to, a top in REE for the foreseeable future.

In the short/medium term you know my thoughts on La & Ce making up approx 75% of most baskets but we do agree on Ne, Pr & HREE. My issue with the later is that the demand, irrespective of the growth profile, is such a small annual tonnage (ex Ga in surplus) 1725tpa/2014 that it wouldn't take a lot in the way of thrifting, substitution, new tech or perhaps additional supply to cap future pricing. All pure speculation on my part of course.

Regarding Ne: IMO the biggest driver, windpower (magnets) along with biofuel will look like T model Ford's in the not too distant future. Only difference is we put the T's in museums, not sure what's planned for all those ugly windmills.

End game: If LYC basket remains $60/90 they are going to be
hugely profitable in the medium term with every opportunity to dominate Western supply. Market control, via the LAMP, may have as big an impact on the SP as the basket price.

To make it interesting, if the LYC basket averages over US$200 for 2013 I'll send over a crate of that Bundy that you fancy and be delighted to do it!