Agree mkt reaction totally underwhelming but fair chance there's latent upside when fund mgrs eventually manage to join the dots.
Lynas close to completing a base capacity 12ktpa, including significant US production, and roughly half that is looking for new customers.
Together with the yet to be legislated $30kg NdFeB tax credit this further 25% tariff provides a powerful base for US mag manufacture, stimulating US PMM manufacture, in addition an ex China pricing mechanism for NdPr, one that doesn't oscillate wildly $40kg to $170kg driven by rabid speculation at the extremes in both directions.
With each of these developments the lack of commitment to take advantage by Lynas' largest customers becomes more glaring, specifically Shin Etsu & Protrial, former Hitachi metals, now US controlled.
Where are these two, perhaps also Daido Steel, when the foundations are being built for the first significant expansion of ex China mag capacity?
Really would expect some announcement from at least one of those three before much longer, perhaps then fund mgrs might woke.
Ramifications for NdPr pricing quite profound, mkt driven ex China pricing? What will China do with the 13% VAT designed to promote domestic NdFeB manufacture, largely ineffectual now?
All looks to be massive upside for Lynas but we may have to be patient to see it reflected in the SP.
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