This post was on the wrong thread:
One key question IMO is: can ex-China producers meet the supply needs of ex-China end users?
And can supply grow with demand? This applies to every stage: mine -> conc -> separated REOs -> metals -> magnets.
So far Lynas plus tolling to metals (mostly in Vietnam I believe) are doing a pretty good job for Japan apart from HRE which are coming soon.
I expect Lynas + MP (whatever combination) can grow into the US market as it develops.
However I very much doubt the ROW end users or governments would want a monopoly supplier.
If MP fails or merges with Lynas it's a sure thing that some of Hastings, Iluka, Arafura Texas RE etc will be championed even beyond current US and Aus government support.
I'm happiest if Lynas and MP stay as competitors.
Lynas and MP?, page-5
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