Today's possible forge sale could potentially free up some cash for LYC beyond the current LAMP requirements if it happens. This got me to thinking about how Lynas might use this cash. Keep in mind, the announcement said they would seek shareholder approval for the forge sale because of NC's role in each company. That means this is not going to happen overnight. But since my LYC add order has no chance of getting filled tonight I might as well just kick this around (with Bundy in hand).
My first thought was that Lynas could add to its NTU stake. This would make sense based on NC's earlier comments. And once we are putting product on the market in the fall, the elements we will not be selling could still see a continued jump in price. Adding to NTU would further secure our foothold in this direction and save us some if we go after NTU's BR or JG projects.
That was logical enough. But my second thought was a little more out there. In the 13-5-2010 conference call NC talked about the requirements Lynas would have for concentrates from other mines going to the LAMP in the May Investor Call (http://www.lynascorp.com/content/upload/files/Investor%20Calls/Lynas_Corporation_Quarterly_Report_Investor_Call-_13_May_2010.htm )(min 16:30). The requirements were low environmental concerns, (concentrate) operates by gravity or flotation, low radioactivity, with the right distribution of rare earths for the Lynas customer base.
But he also said that Lynas was looking at a couple of mines in Africa in the same comment. Lynas acquired the Kangankunde Hill project in Malawi in September 2007 http://www.infomine.com/index/pr/PA536540.PDF . So I think he was referring to a different African project. Anyone care to guess?
I thought of four projects based on the NC requirements laid out above. The four are Steenkampskraal, Zandkopsdrift, Mrima Hill, and Wigu Hill.
Steenkampskraal has great TREO % numbers and would separate easily but I don't think Great Western will part with it and the mine is too small. It also is in South Africa, which is some distance from Kangankunde and therefore offers less infrastructure synergies for Lyans Malawi.
Zandkopsdrift is owned by Frontier and is also in South Africa. It is a big mine (1,130,000 metric tons) but it is a 3.60% TREO grade http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5220/pdf/SIR2010-5220.pdf#page=21
(Table on page 21) That might not be rich enough and the project might be too large an addition at this stage. It also might be too costly.
Mrima Hill is in Kenya and is a Pacific Wildcat project. They are a Canadian Tantalum producer. Mrima is an unclassified resource according to the USGA but there are reports of Mrima being 16.2 TREO and 972,000 metric tons http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5220/pdf/SIR2010-5220.pdf#page=21
(Table on page 21). Great numbers if they could be proven with further testing and Pacific Wildcat might be willing to sell if they are wanting to integrate their new Tantalum operations.
The last project I looked at was Montero Mining's Wigu Hill project in Tanzania. With grab samples averaging 14.5% TREO the project seemed interesting. But the mine is Bastnaesite and super light. So processing would be easy, but the project does not add much to Lynas when you have Weld and Kangankunde already.
So I guess my general speculation would have leaned towards Wigu Hill overall, but who knows?
Anyone else want to kick in a thought?
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