LYC 1.48% $5.98 lynas rare earths limited

lynas: market panic vs ground situation

  1. 230 Posts.
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    Unbelievable,
    The share price and the HC forum has been completely taken over by negative sentiment.

    Current Share Price: 13.5c
    Market Capilization: 264.75 Million
    Shares in Issues: 1.96 Billion
    Debt: $440 Million
    Assets: $1000 - $1500 Million (Mount Weld Deposits - $35 Billion Life Value, Concentrator + Lamp Plant - $1000 Million)

    At a minimum $1B assets value, the discounted value of Lynas is $27.5C
    Lynas achieve nameplate production in June 2014 and becomes neutral cashflow operations, then the current share price would be upward of 60c-70c+

    Lynas is still operating despite five years of ups and down while developing one of the most complex rare earth mineral plant and mine in the world. (Plant complexity, environmental groups) It is still standing up in the face of the huge artificial depression in rare earth minerals price.

    Now that everything is looking up, crowd is in panic mode.
    But hey, 90% of people lose money in financial markets.
    I am waiting to see how low this can go before loading up again.

    Debt is not the issue here, it is the working capital till they can achieve neutrality in cashflow operations, which they will by Jun-Sep of this year.

    I am not afraid of Lynas going bankrupt, the risk to reward ratio here is one of the highest that I have seen in ASX.

    Long term holders, you have seen enough pain to lose hope now. This will turnaround surely. Just think how many mining companies in the world have faced what Lynas has faced and still create one of the biggest and world leading mining operations in its sector.

    This panic is short term, and the share price would recover.
    I am long, and my bet is still on.
    Sab Maya



 
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