lynas morning report, page-15

this analyse report's basis has built on the premise of the two mainly important assumptions:

1,“predicated on the TOL not being issued until post election ???We remain of the view that the TOL will be issued post election ?”
surely this is possible, but the key is when the election.
if the election has delayed until the statutory deadline for that 1Q 2013, this analyse report would be as the great reference value for investors;

however, if “Latest expectations are that a Malaysian election will be held in late Q4CY12. It’s widely expected that Prime Minister Najib Razak will table the Budget on Sept 28, dissolve Parliament shortly after and then hold an election within two months.” and theoretically the election can be completed in 4 weeks , so the earliest TOL' issued date of "post election" can be in 2-3 months from now.

2, “We estimate a minimum 6-month lead-time from when the TOL is granted”

Don't know from what basis of this conclusion? the Most authoritative explanation should be from "Lynas Conference Call on 30 April 2012 " that is: "how long is the first cash flow... 4 to 5 weeks transport first concentrate,
60 days for processing, 1 month for customer acceptance."
--- 4 months, and if TOL has issued, the market will have a great confidence, then " funded by sufficient working capital" that will never be big problem.

Uncertain risk also means sudden opportunity, the low-transparent and uncertain of TOL'decision-making process by Malaysian authorities, that can Lead to the "assume expected " can be very easy to " be destroyed" by suddenly good news. if PM Najib Razak would table the Budget on Sept 28, also announce that the election, TOL'issue date will be much earlier than the F's "assuming expected ", the many of Worst possible that concern in the F's reports will not occur.

Wait and see...