Lynas - Never fails to disappoint, page-10

A couple of people have mentioned shorting and we all know what a short squeeze can do. There is a new group powering the market up and this is really scary. They are under 31 have never been through a recession and now this group is relying heavily on Margin to raise money for their buying. Major brokerage houses like Fidelity and MS are reporting some of the highest Margin levels since the DOT COM run UP which was also fueled by margin. Since this group has only seen a positive market they think every thing will be OK because it always has been. I have been reading a few articles about this group since early 2019 when All indexes were going up while earnings were dropping which is not normal behavior for markets. So markets are crazy right now if something goes bad margin can cause it to fall rapidly. Last year there was maybe one article about this a month. Now there have been more than I could read this week. HTZ is typical here is a company that has declared bankruptcy. The company Investment bankers and bankruptcy judge has come out and said the stock will be worthless. A quick review of balance sheet shows even first and second line debts cannot be paid off even if the recent SPO took place, it was cancelled. just today about 4 new articles about how crazy this is. Here is just one from Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/amiyatoshpurnanandam/2020/06/15/who-is-really-behind-hertzs-stock-rally--robinhood-or-strategic-investors/#4f5b0f1762d6

OK so that is just one crazy case. There are many others. This group is doing this in many areas and many give them credit for the recent new high on the NASDAQ. they are buying Apple and amazon as well a quick look at traditional metrics for thes companies which have always been high shows they are selling for much more than they ever have based on metrics. Remember March three things happened to Lynas. first they receive 3 year license which started a new run up. Next day they announced 80% lower earnings which started stock going down and then markets fell apart in general results SP 1.08.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-legend-who-called-3-stock-market-bubbles-says-this-one-is-the-real-mccoy-this-is-crazy-stuff-2020-06-17?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-rise-of-a-mom-and-pop-investors-in-the-stock-market-will-end-in-tears-warns-billionaire-cooperman-2020-06-15?mod=article_inline

Granted I am Metric focused maybe too much but I do well. the biggest plus in my entire life to my portfolio was the Dot Com crash. It was caused by many young high salary people working it dot com buying on margin and ignoring advice. When it blew apart it was fast and severe. I cannot prove it will happen now. I was lucky in Dot Com I had many young engineers working for me I heard there reasoning in hallways and at Lunch, I heard them dump on any call for caution because look at how much they made, All paper and funded by margin. It was not hard to tell what would happen. What I can prove is many states in US are seeing the virus cases increase. I do not look at results of testing more testing will always result in more cases found, I look at hospital admissions and Intensive Care occupancy rates. New unemployment claims were down last week but not nearly as much as expected. Unemployment in US is still over 20 M in spite of trillions of $ being spent to keep people at work. Even a small drop in stock prices can start Margin calls. People have to sell at loss lowering prices sparking more margin calls. Same thing as short squeeze just opposite direction. Now Lynas comes along with reduced revenue and negative cash flow with Q4 report. Then first loss in 4 years with AR and it will probably not be small. What happens if the market is falling when this happens. I am still staying with my SP 1.50 after AR. Depending on revenue and cash decline in Q4 report. I expect I will drop my guess. I will also work out what I expect NPAT to be With the AR. I hope a few Go go Lynas people work out same with Q4 it will be good to have opposing views.