Refreshing to see someone looking back wards but 15 years? I do...

The first point is that Lynas is surviving just fine at present without the subsidies. Lynas is a low cost producer currently making (modest) money while most competitors inside Chine are going backwards. And there are no direct competitors outside China;
How are they doing just fine. Take a look at this chart all from Lynas data except 2024 yearly results and tell me this is not a company in trouble unless something changes soon.


Did you listen or remember anything from the Q2 CC i think you have great filters for ignoring the truth. AL has always said they were the lowest competitor. For reasons I can only speculate she became realy honest is Q3. And said that Northern Rare earths had lower cost than Lynas. NRE is over half China's production. I will admit NRE uses close to slave labor and is a major polluter but when talking about cost how relevant is that. Lynas is a low cost producer currently making (modest) money while most competitors inside Chine are going backwards.
Here is a chartShare is vey relevant in spite of what you say. Yes Lynas receives a Premium for there product but even AL has said it is tied to Chinas spot prices. So the position outside China, Lynas is preferred but all suppliers have to be price competitive. if Lynas raised their prices more Japan could not sell their product because of cost. So at less than 10% Lynas is and will stay till they grow the flea on the tail of the China dog. Lynas production is still stalled like it has been for over 6 years.
Secondly, Lynas' share of the world market is irrelevant: Lynas has a virtual monopoly as an ex-China producer of REO and that's the relevant market.Here is a chart of Lynas production Even AL says they are still at name plate of 6KT a year of NdPr. Now they are cutting back because of prices. Well maybe or maybe yet again they cannot deliver on promises. all data from Q reports.


Fourth, does the subsidy help Lynas given that it's a subsidy for magnet makers? Of course it does. Other sources probably will come online of course. But for now if anyone wants to set up NdFeB magnet manufacturing in the US accessing the subsidy there is only one source of REO that qualifies; Lynas. (Apart from a rounding error's worth from MP.)
I never said it will not help It will help Lynas bt only because of the small portion that will trickle down to them. Also again you talk about things that may happen in the distant future. Lynas is in severe trouble right now. If I was holding I would be a lot more woried about what is happening right now than what may happen someday.

Seriously, is anyone questioning the USG commitment to local NdPeB magnet making or the huge boost this gives to Lynas???
Let me think for a moment. their budget and high-level objectives are controlled by President and congress. I guess you are correct they will not change.

You wrote al of this without one piece of data. It is all your opinion which is fine if you labeled it as such but you treated your ideas as facts and established truths. Also everything is years in future. May or may not happen. Your opening statements indicate you have no idea just how much trouble Lynas is in right now. They will not go bankrupt But with AR and 2025 SAR how deep those problems are will become clearer no mater what AL says in CCs. That will drive the stock price down. They may become a take over target and accountants not this board will determine price. They will look at book value currently 2,153M pg. 58 of 2023 AR which is AUD 2.30 / share. They will look at Traditional multiples on Revenue and profits. If I was a stock holder I would be hopping that no M&A activities is in the near future because the seller never does well in a distress sale.
you are doing the right thing dreaming of distant future because the next year looks very bad. Only by looking at distant future can you find something positive

Refreshing to see someone looking back wards but 15 years? I do agree it is highly unlikely chia will kill Lynas but not because of what happened 15 years in past.