Lets drop back a little and talk about what I feel is basic. You...

Lets drop back a little and talk about what I feel is basic. You disagree just explain why. first I am going to use some acronyms Long Term LT. and Short term ST, Leads to >>

Based on all your posts I believe you believe The following for the long term.

Increased REE Demand >> increased REE Price >> increased Lynas Revenue >> increases Profit >> Increase in LYC SP

I believe the same is true short term and short term is more important to investors. We all buy stocks hopping we can hold them for years JMO successful investors do not want to take big loses, paper or actual. It is only by reevaluating buy decisions, regardless of what you thought at time of purchase. That success is achieved. I define success as bottom line in portfolio increasing short and long term. I never judge by individule stocks. it is my botom line because that is what I live on.

Long term events are always good to keep in mind. It also must remember that political attitudes are subject to change. This is especially true in election years when compromises are very hard to achieve. Right now Trump and Biden in US are very close Both houses are closely matched so not much is being passed. The legislature has a very small bias in favor of republicans the president is a democrat further stalling any thing. for example look how close we have come to shutting down the government because they cannot agree on a budget. Every thing has a high chance of changing in 2025 depending on results. As a result I pay attention to short term events and work to be aware but take no action on long term.

Like all companies Lynas has a book to Bill delay. AL says it is 90 days. I believe longer but use 90. So Q1 2025 prices are pretty much known already. Prices show no sign of going up soon. JMO AR will not be good. If REE prices do not rise rapidly in Next 30 days Then SAR will not be good either. i define rapidly as 300 RMB in 30 days. This is the only thing that will help Q2 and SAR. I will make my H1 revenue prediction after Q4 Release and Profits after AR. You want to wait for all the things you post to kick in then you should do it. Time will tell if it is a good move.

One more thing for you to think about The average of Friday close for NdPr. Here is a brand new chart. Note on Q4 it is the last 10 Weeks of Q4. The price Friday 7 June was 364. Unless something dramatic happens like happened in mid April the price is going down by end of Q If you do not believe AL book to bill delay of 90 days it is clear H2 will have lower prices than H1. if you do believe the book to bill delay H2 is still lower but now H1 2025 has a high chance of being lower as well.