Thanks again qiktrade - great work,
Just a few thoughts too:
1. It would be better if the actual sales contracts from phase 1 and 2 are reflected within the revenues rather than a simple basket price. ie for phase 1, ce/la 4000t and nd/pr 2700t, etc. The sales mix is within one of the recent presentations. We should include the Rhodia initial discount on the light RE's too
2. Should include the WA mine royalty rates. They price this at a rate of 5% for concentrate products at the value of the goods leaving the state. Interestingly here, arafura's presentations were valuing the concentrate at 70% of end value (which I belive is way too high) - Sure ARU was 'promoting' positive spin in their presentation though.
3. Include a corporate overhead figure - I'm assuming 40m
4. Exchange rate - profits need to be brough back into $AU
5. Corporate tax - Gillard and Swan want their cut too, even though the lamp is zero tax
6. Include unlisted options in #shares - I count ~1.785b
7. Make production cost between US$15-20 (especially for 1st year) - then it can drop back once steady-state (mentioned by NC in last investor call).
Based on my figures including the above, we still have some dam good profits coming and a much higher share price ahead of us!
Cheers..
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