lynas price calculator, page-7

Qikread,
Firstly, fantastic that you have done this work and prepared to share it.
My own version (DMOR) a bit different format but gives similar direction, and i enjoyed working through your spreadsheet.

What I particulary notice is that your SP for 2013/14 is $27 (or alternatively $18 if I substitute a more conservative 8 P/E ratio).
My thought is that any current SP (theoretically) takes into account future earnings rates and then just discounts for time and for risk of achieving said target.
Even dropping to lower P/E of 8 and then use DCF to get PV to, say, $12, and drop another 25% for squabbling about this tax or that cost, giving $9 SP as a target once permit and construction risks have passed.

The $7 difference is not all permit and construction risks, of course. The elephant in the corner is the future basket price. Will now be considered the top of the bubble, or will we look back and see we were only half-way up the bubble's climb? All the other big commodities have recovered a lot since 2008, but are not in bubble territory, more like LT mid-rate.

This makes $3, $4 look easy.

(ps, I use the term bubble to reflect the shape of the chart. I don't mean the term bubble to iindicate the price is necessary out of wack)