Actually I prefer working off a recent price projection NdPr,...

Actually I prefer working off a recent price projection NdPr, forget the Adamas simplistic BS, RE prices have never moved in straight lines and as CRU commodity analysts have captured there is likely to be a steep run up in price as NdPr demand rises quickly beyond capacity to supply.

CRU maybe a bit aggressive initially, and run way too high IMO, but they do capture a 2025 peak when both fresh supply & end of life recycling start to come on stream, which likely to return prices back to LT economic value as calculated by UBS ~$60kg.

IMO there is solid support for UBS calc's at $60kg, not least their estimate of 40% margins Lynas at that level, which they also nominate as their "barrier to entry" point, vindicated by recent FS showing very skinny IRR at that level.

Point being, if we accept CRU/UBS analysis of a LT "fair" economic value for NdPr there is likely a period early next decade when it overshoots to the high side before correcting mid decade. Won't be holding my breath for $120kg so I'll pluck a "target" 50% overshoot at $90kg as doable.

Lynas have delivered a 2025 roadmap with broad volumes, they'll spend the next year or so fleshing that out and detailing their engagement to mkt, sponsoring ROW demand growth.

At some point ~2023 that will intersect with an overshoot in prices likely to project revenues +$1bn with earnings ~$400M, say a mkt cap $6/7Bn or 4x current.

Broad brush thoughts just looking at parameters for a "sweet spot", remembering the further we travel into next decade the more likely we'll see a correction to this bumpy, extended economic cycle, running a decade already.