Lynas will not publish an operation update, page-31

'Personally I think that we have reached a bottom earlier at 11c and that as milestones are reached in production, cashflow positive and debt repayment, that the SP will recover towards $1'

Mick, you hit the nail on the head. "production, cashflow positive and debt repayment". It really is down to;
A) can they sustain production at a profitable level - a lot to prove and may take a year to prove this
B) can they generate enough profit to start paying down debt
C) will they be in a position to refinance in 2 years time at substantially better rates that currently being speculated in the press.
D) when will they get to an EPS of 10C (to justify a SP of $1) - profits of $250m PA.

In the short term, over the next year, LYC will have to generate at least $35m in profits to pay the finance costs, assuming the Sojitz loan is deferred to 2016.

There may be reward at the current levels, but there is substantial risk as well. Thus Mr Market appears to value this risk reward scenario at about 14C.

I posted after the CR that I expected a trading range of 10-14c until the loan details are known. IMO, any move above 14c will be met with selling prior to the loan details.