lzaard is selling, page-5

Linwar Securities has put a price target of 35c on SIP, with an "underperform" recommendation, according to the AFR, on Tuesday, 7 December. That's still 4c lower from the current share price of 39c. I am wondering if the market (and me) are thinking of the lowest possible current price target to work out what to do.

Afex, that article on Orbis vs SIP is interesting. Orbis clearly has a lot to lose with this arbitrage. It's a massive risk versus reward trade. Orbis says they still want at least 36c special dividend, which is about a 90% premium to the current SIP share price. Let's face it, if there was a hope that that would happen, punters would put every cent they could muster to be in on that kind of outcome. I presume that outcome would also send SIP broke at some point in the future. The article suggests there might be some kind of vote against board members next year unless shareholders' (Orbis?) demands are not met.

On share price, we have now fallen about 20%. API has fallen about 25%. They have assets, we have special dividend. I doubt SIP could take over API now (I could be very wrong in this?) even in a scrip takeover at a premium, but maybe private equity would take a look at API's assets.

I think SIP remains one of the most fascinating risk/reward plays on the ASX, particularly since the Pfizer decision. Orbis vs SIP has become a David vs David battle, with both having so much to lose.

ACCC decision on Thursday (thanks again, Thompson). Lazard selling adds to the risk (thanks, DrPwu for your thoughts on this). They are still SIP's financial advisers as per SIP's ANN on Friday. One major player (the most important?) moving out, and one (who probably knows the state of play, too) continuing to move in. Fascinating. Four trading days to go to find out SIP's (and our) immediate future.