Totally agree. Neuren faces very little risks getting multiple...

Totally agree. Neuren faces very little risks getting multiple drugs to Phase 3 & FDA approval. I've done some detailed analysis on what causes drugs to fail at Phase 3 (will share at some point when I can write it up). Suffice to say based upon this research Neuren has a 90% likelihood of Phase 3 success & FDA approval for all it's indications (including HIE) by my analysis. Almost all the normal risks that cause failure (high side-effects, low efficacy, insufficient improvement over existing drugs, insufficient funding, etc) are fully mitigated with Neuren.

Neuren also faces zero financial risk i.e. raising additional capital to fund the journey completion.

So the only thing you're getting selling now rather than in 2-3 years is a use of money benefit. Using a 12% discount per annum you're talking about a 30% discount to the value of Neuren with 3-4 FDA approved drugs if you get a T/O now rather than in 3 years.

Considering the final value of Neuren based upon the above is >$500 (HIE is worth about $200+ a share on its own - will share my analysis of HIE market potential at some point) any T/O now should be AU$300+ a share.

Clearly that's not happening. So we're all going to be forced to wait for $500 a share in 3 years ;-)

PS As an aside, I would note that HIE is worth alot more long term than the other indications for one simple reason - HIE will never be 'cured' by gene therapy. Long term any parent with a child with a rare disease with a genetic cause will always prefer a genetic 'cure' over a chronic treatment - in fact I've read research suggesting some potential users of Daybue have held off taking it because they'd prefer to wait for a gene therapy 'cure'. Gene therapy may be having challenges getting there - but it's clearly the long term solution. For that reason NNZ-2591 likely has a limited window in this area - successful gene therapy will always be coming. HIE (not to mention the next logical future steps after HIE - stroke & TBI...) doesn't have this competitive risk.

It will be interesting to see what the next indications are for Neuren - I wouldn't be surprised if the theme of non-genetic disorders is continued - as that long term may be where NNZ-2591 really has the market.