It's definitely a tricky one putting a value on Neuren right...

It's definitely a tricky one putting a value on Neuren right now. I think most of us would agree the bulk of any big money offer will be based on 2591. Daybue is great but has limitations and obviously Acadia owns almost 90%. The Phase 2s for 2591 look at least as good or better but the trial size is not that big and there was no placebo. The latter can definitely play a role when the endpoints are quite reliant on a physician or caregiver assessment of function and ability. Obviously a huge amount rides on the first phase 3 and if successful then huge numbers are a given. The problem is with biotech the outcomes are so binary. I know in DCF models and the like you can apply huge discounts to try and account for the risk but if 2591 fails in its first phase 3 then any recovery will be a tough slog. It's not the same as having a new product that you expect to sell huge numbers of but only succeed in achieving some percentage of expectations. In this case it's a bet on having a monopoly on treating PMS patients for many years and the market getting giddy on the future potential in other indications versus essentially millions in sunk costs. It may be possible to analyse the failed trial data and reboot for another shot but that would be years and many more millions later. So it's not a total shock that Neuren has moved down while pieces are put in place to take a shot at the big prize. There is no issue with Neuren needing money to have a go, they can easily afford it, but the bottom line will be taking a hit in the interim and at the end it'll be a jackpot or snake eyes. So if you want to jump in the cockpit and buy Neuren now, what do you pay? Personally I'm hoping for one of these de-risking deals with a modest but reasonable upfront and extra incentive payments based on future outcomes.