Thanks for clarifying, and apologies if my above points were not easily discernible.
To believe that the P/E ratio is currently 5.4 per your calculations suggests that the true value of CWN should be at least three times (average P/E market 15, average P/E cons disc 19) the current close of $12 ie approaching $35 (!).
EGP and SKC are the direct ASX-listed competitors to CWN. This is apparent from Queen's Wharf submissions (22/12/2014), and beautifully highlighted at CWN presentation AGM (16/10/2014). Local patronage may be responsible for current earnings, especially the Melbourne flagship, but the overwhelming objective of CWN (emerging middle class of Asia) is not appreciably different from that of global casino companies, online gaming, retailers and tourism operators the world over. To suggest a monopoly exists requires a similar level of understanding (or conviction) that CWN actually operates at a P/E ratio of 5.4, etc
If Melco revenues plateaued at 2014 Q3 (Bell Potter) and Macau tourism data (DSEC) continues, then the threat of Moody's downgrade is obviated. With an exciting pipeline of projects to come, I shall continue to follow this segment closely!
CWN Price at posting:
$12.33 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
