asf, Here are some numbers - keeping market share relative flat c.15% and US market growth at c. 6% post FY14 (FY14 being flat)... i get a DCF value of AU$$1.50 per share.
As always the devil is in the detail doing this analysis so have provided you with a view of my assumptions below:
here's the DCF output:
I think this is all very conservative in terms of the assumptions... although you could question the milestone payments in the latter years - not sure they would get them all if Lilly can't grow share.
I'm currently tracking net sales and market share against the following charts / forecasts - will be interesting to see how they go over the coming quarters!!
ACR Price at posting:
$1.06 Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
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