macca's warrants, page-14

blackgold re: pelican duster??? and wpl
Blackgold

Agree with your coments on HDR but no as to your view on your namesake heading lower over 2004.

My view is that crude oil will head to USD 40 over 2004 (and much higher beyond) for the following reasons:

- most important is peak world oil production. We are at the cusp of an unprecedent event in world history when global oil production, including middle east oil production, has or had hit a peak; The world is not prepared for this, much less want to even talk about.

- world oil demand is going gangbusters. China alone will account for massive increases. China is also building a strategic oil reserve (why wouldn't they). A decent sized reserve would be around 300mbbls, which is about 1mbbls of ADDTIONAL demand over the course of a year.

- US dollars being trashed. OPEC has already shown its unwillingness to reduce oil prices in USD given the reduced purchasing power of USD. and make no mistake, USD is dead in the water going forward.

- evidence of demand exceeding supply is shown in reduced reserves to historically low levels. last week US inventory fell 5mbbls, which was 10 times more than analysts expections.

- gas in the US in at a crisis point and will result in additional pressure on oil

- My charts tell me that oil is going to 40 plus at least within 6 month, and in view of the above, I would trust my charts..

Welcome your comments.

Trender