AGI (ASX) MACD

Originally posted by expectancy ↑

AGI is potentially forming a bottom on a weekly/monthly time frame. Next week will provide more information. A break above the long term downtrend line (down sloping red line on chart below) could make it more probable that a bottom has been found (but no guarantees)?

Evidence supporting hypothesis:

1. Long term price pattern is a falling wedge - slope of line connecting major swing point lows (green) is shallower than line connecting major swing point highs (red). A break above the upper line of this pattern is traditionally regarded as bullish. Currently price is "knocking on the door" of the upper line. If it breaks through next week and closes above it then there is a strong chance that a bottom has been formed (again no guarantees only probabilities).

2. Very high volume came in on the 26/10/2017 to form a swing point low of $1.60. This indicates that price reached a value that attracted a lot of buyers. The high volume probably exhausted the sellers (weak hands finally "throwing in the towel" or "shorters" taking profits). This day was also a "false" break of the prior major swing point low (15/02/2016 $1.765). After the false break a 9 week rally ensued taking price up to $2.15 (false breaks often lead to fast moves in the other direction). Since the rally any attempt to go back down and retest the $1.60 level (24/02/2017 & 15/05/2017) has been unable to reach it indicating that buyers are keen to pick up stock at bargain prices.

3. Last week was a "bullish engulfing" bar where the low of the week fell below the low of the previous week and the close broke above the highs of the past 15 weeks further indicating that the market is currently "bullish" on this stock. This bullishness has occurred amidst a background of general market bearishness which is even more compelling.

4. Consensus valuations and price targets "gleened" from a variety of sources on the internet including my broker indicate that a price of $1.60 may represent a significant undervaluation. The market sentiment represented on price charts seems to support that view.

What am I doing?
Generally I am not a value investor or a bottom picker. I don't buy low and sell high, I buy high and sell higher. I won't start to getting interested until price breaks above $2.15 which is the lowest swing point high on the monthly bar chart. I have put AGI on my watchlist & will monitor future price action and any business updates.

Weekly Bar Chart

View attachment 584601

Expand

Encouraging price action - we have a break above the long term downtrend line with the biggest volume of the entire rally. With the current momentum and volume it might test $2.15 but I have a feeling it won't break it. It may be a "tad" early for it to break above 2.15 until further "good" news is received.

Technical Analysis Note: For this entire downtrend weekly RSI(14) has never broken above 60. If this rally results in RSI breaking above that value then something definitely has changed with market sentiment.

P.S. I think we can safely conclude from my posts that my personality is definitely leaning towards the "anal" end of the spectrum.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	1	91.0¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

91.0¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
92.0¢	3780	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

92.0¢

3780

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	14945	0.895
2	32487	0.870
1	8887	0.855
1	5882	0.850
1	1000	0.830

No.

Vol.

Price($)

14945

0.895

32487

0.870

8887

0.855

5882

0.850

1000

0.830

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.930	1870	2
0.940	5577	1
0.950	2610	1
1.020	2499	1
1.035	6785	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.930

1870

0.940

5577

0.950

2610

1.020

2499

1.035

6785

(20min delay)
Last 92.0¢		Change 0.040(4.55%)		Mkt cap ! $309.8M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
88.0¢	92.5¢	88.0¢	$16.61K	18.43K

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