maclaren: mid june question mark

From Brewster:

'Bill Maclaren from the Gold Coast put up a nice chart of the DOW from 1949.

Same pattern as we see now.

He is calling for a rally up consolidation then on June 12 big correction, and a break of this bull run, looks like it will be a big move down.

Till then or thereabouts, the yanks want to rally this thing.

The earnings have come in weaker, but meet expectations.

Doesn't take a Mathematician to work it out, they are happy with whatever the result right now.

The CPI data and housing figures this week will be telling.

Tomorrow will be a tricky morning on the spi. A lot of nervous people first up me thinks then a rally, that super money has to go somewhere. Right now it is stocks.

I wonder if things get tough, will the money start making it's way into bonds. The fundies must have a valuation model for our market as to where the money must go.

I think we are way overbought from the lows of the little correction, but then again, our market has been in overbought condition for the best part of 3 1/2 years.

The US economy is on the brink of a meltdown, but the yanks are in denial.
The fact of the matter is that they will defend their position as the number one market on the planet for as long as they can, even when all the fundamentals are pointing to a recession.

London is taking over from NY as the one stop shop for all trading instruments, from stocks to futures to commodities. The most liquid market on the planet.

Germany, well that is a strange animal affected by fast settlement, that is why the extreme moves on that market, couldn't work it out for a long time, but it seems to make sense.

Hate to say it, but our market does look cheap compared to most markets on the planet. With all shares being snapped up by the super funds, creating an increasingly shrinking supply of shares you would have to think more floats and or stock splits.
Of course, when the party ends here, we will come down very hard. I would hate to say it but when we do get a proper correction we could have number of down days of 150 points or more. After all, what comes up must come down, and we have gone up extremely hard.

Until that time, I will just trade with the trend.

Remember that date, June 12 give or take a few of course.'