Macq Bank upgrades $GXY, page-40

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binwood

9,074 Posts.

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20/06/17

10:51

Post #: 25375008
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Originally posted by yanlin ↑

Mac Bank still don't like GXY for some reason.
This report is full of holes and misinformation.
E.g. comments such as this: "....Whilst progress is being made, the ramp up of new supply at Mt Marion and Mt Cattlin has been slower than anticipated. It appears that technical difficulties at the mines and potentially in integrating new concentrate feed into existing conversion capacity are abundant....."
I thought we had already ramped up to nameplate production. Does MacBank know something that GXY management does not know???

Or, how about this: ".... Earnings for GXY in FY17 and FY18 are unchanged due to the contracted nature of sales...."
When did GXY lock in 2018 pricing??? Why weren't we told.... (if this was the case)??

But my favourite bit of selective editing is the pricing used in the models for GXY and PLS. Here are the forward price assumptions for spod pricing MacBank uses in its valuations:

ASSUMPTIONS FY17e FY18e FY19e FY20e
GXY Spod US$/t 904 648 646 689
PLS Spod US$/t 868 812 757 720
Variance (4.1%) +20.2% +14.7% +4.3%

These revenue assumptions are simply CRAP. I have never seen a more one-sided and biased analysis ever.

These guys should have to justify this to ASIC in order to keep their professional accreditation!!!

Expand

AJM got shafted even more FY19e = 571. In the same report they are saying the market will struggle to meet demand into the early 2020's. They have to be one of the worst analyst divisions there are.

Just look at the performance of their own managed funds. They are disgraceful. Yet somehow they keep making huge revenue. Australian market needs to get a lot smarter.

GXY Price at posting: $1.71 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
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