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2.94%

16.5¢ carnarvon energy limited

Or it gets takeover or bought out? At what price , who knows?

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eyeswideopen

11,476 Posts.

511

19/08/14

13:27

Post #: 13838990
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Originally posted by Merleredneck ↑

You cant count your chickens before they hatch, if you want to place a risked value on it as it stands untested flows today.

Firstly 300 is p10. thats a 10% probability of finding that amount in place.
Valuations like to use P50, which is a 50% probability.
So lets start with 150m BOIP p50

Well if you get 30% recoverable, that 45m recoverable, and at 20% net to CVN is 9m recoverable barrels.

Would it be fair to apply a tech risk to that of say 0.6, = 5.4m barrels x 10/bl = 54m that could attribute fairly with risk considered.

With cash and cash equiv of 80m or so. 8c backing, and another 5c for this.
I'll be generous and double the valuation of the discovery because of the acreage.

13c-18c when the dust settles. The market may overvalue it, on expectation of additional well success.

Can be higher as they prove up additional drills and show flow rates etc.

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Or it gets takeover or bought out? At what price , who knows?

CVN Price at posting: 25.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 16.5¢		Change -0.005(2.94%)		Mkt cap ! $295.1M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
17.0¢	17.0¢	16.5¢	$1.265M	7.655M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	2079103	16.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
17.0¢	1462061	14

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	2079103	0.165
14	1054274	0.160
20	921608	0.155
11	923924	0.150
18	723930	0.145

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.170	1462061	14
0.175	2284785	10
0.180	522189	12
0.185	179057	5
0.190	215000	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 19/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

CVN (ASX) Chart